Welcome back, my fellow gambling addicts, to the 4th edition of this season’s Sunken Cost Money Pit! Last week was another 1-1 week, with the Michigan Wolverines easily handling the hapless Iowa Hawkeyes, but the Green Bay Packers failed to cover against a New England Patriots team that was down to their third string quarterback.
I’m a bit pressed for time this week (hence the article being out later than I’d like), so I won’t waste too much time reflecting on last week. In my mind, the Michigan pick was a strong bet based entirely on just how ineffective Iowa’s offense has been this year. Even if the game had been a low scoring grinder, I thought Michigan would cover with ease, which they did. On the other hand, Green Bay fans are going to have to start coming to terms with the fact that Aaron Rodgers is not that guy anymore. He can still make big plays, and it certainly isn’t his fault that there were some key drops by his young (aka inexperienced) receiving corp that made the game closer than it should have been (and we’re not even going to get into the ridiculous missed delay of game penalty that resulted in a TD for New England). However, he hasn’t played at that transcendent level that brings his entire team up, and the reality is he misses Davante Adams a lot.
With that said, let’s move on to this week’s picks. I’ve had a few readers tell me that they’d like to see more picks this week, even if they don’t feature full length write-ups. As I’ve cautioned in the past, I tend to only feature the picks that I would bet my own money on. I’m not interested in picking every game just to have a slate. I’m more interested in picking the lines that give you guys the best chance to win. With that said, I’m going to meet everyone half way and pick a few games that I feel confident about, with some additional picks at the end of each section for those who are just curious about what my bonus picks/parlays would look like.
Record: 8-2 Money-line / 6-4 ATS
Bank: +$143.57 on individual picks / +$49.57 on parlays
NCAA Football – Week 6
#4 Michigan Wolverines -22.5 OVER Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana is coming off a 35-21 loss to a Nebraska team who fired their coach a few weeks ago. This isn’t to say that the entire Cornhusker team has quit, as they are clearing showing effort, even if it has become a tryout for the transfer portal or next year’s roster. But for the Hoosiers to be physically manhandled by a Nebraska team that couldn’t handle Georgia Southern means they are particularly susceptible for teams with great line play and running attacks. Well, Michigan might be the most physical team in the Big-10 with one of the best running backs in the country in Blake Corum. I usually stay away from point spreads as large as 22.5 points, but Michigan can beat Indiana by 30 in an otherwise pedestrian effort. Michigan covers.
2. #17 TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 OVER #19 Kansas Jayhawks
I think you will find very few people outside of homers near Lawrence who predicted the Kansas Jayhawks would be a 5-0 team (2-0 in Big-12) and ranked heading into this match-up with TCU. They may not be a flashy team, but have excelled at the fundamentals: run the ball, stop the run, take care of the football. As feel-good as this story may be, I think the fairy tale start to the season ends this week when TCU comes to town, fresh off of their 55-24 destruction of the Oklahoma Sooners. These teams are actually quite similar, both in approach and on the stat sheet. However, this is one of those situations where TCU is just a bit better than Kansas at everything, while proving it against better competition. TCU covers.
Bonus Picks:
3. #25 LSU Tigers +3 OVER #8 Tennessee Volunteers
4. Florida Gators -10.5 OVER Missouri Tigers
5. Ole Miss Rebels -17 OVER Vanderbilt Commodores
NFL – Week 5
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Over/Under 42.5 UNDER
Don’t accuse me of cheating on this one, as there is video evidence of me making this prediction from our Thursday Night Football stream! I told viewers to pound the under, which was set on Draftkings at 42.5 points right before kickoff. This game was even uglier and less watchable than I could have imagined, and the combined 21 points (all field goals) didn’t even make it halfway to the over/under mark. This was an easy UNDER.
Bonus Picks:
2. Baltimore Ravens -3.5 OVER Cincinnati Bengals
3. Tennessee Titans -2 OVER Washington Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons