Welcome back, my fellow gambling addicts, to the 2nd edition of this season’s Sunken Cost Money Pit! Last week saw us kicking things off with a solid 4-2 record on 6 picks. I’ve always considered a 66% win percentage to be the baseline that I try to meet or exceed each week in order to keep annual winnings safely in the black. All three of our college football picks were winners:
We took Oklahoma at -11.5 OVER Nebraska, and they won by 35.
We took Penn State at -3 OVER Auburn, and they won by 29.
And we took Pitt at -10 OVER Western Michigan and they won by 21.
One thing that pops out from the clean sweep in NCAAF is the fact that all of those were comfortable wins, even against the spread. Something I try to hammer home to my readers is that I am NOT here to just pick every single game, every single week, in every sport in season, just to have skin in the game. The Sunken Cost Money Pit doesn’t exist as a vanity project to set a high score. What I try to do each week is identify the games that I think Vegas simply has wrong, and bet the house on those games. I also like to toss out some token parlays just to see if I can cash in on a low risk/high reward bet on a double-digit leg ticket. Throughout the season I measure my progress on the basis of a $100 bet on each of my picks, with perhaps $10 bets on parlays.
We only managed to go 1-2 on the NFL picks last week with the Bengals managing to lose to a team quarterbacked by Cooper Rush and the Chiefs losing the cover in the final seconds. The single NFL win was:
We took the Buffalo Bills at -10 OVER the Tennessee Titans, who won by 34.
With the overall 4-2 record and NCAAF parlay win, we are sitting at +$214.25 after one week. This week we only have two picks, both being NFL games. There might not be a lot of action on only two picks, but again, I’m not here to pick games that I feel okay about, or even ones I feel pretty good about. I’m only including picks I feel are as close to sure things as one can get in this game, and in particular ones that I think Vegas has fouled up the line on. Perhaps I’ll leave more crumbs about my process in future columns, but for now, on to the picks!
DISCLAIMER: These picks are only here for your info-tainment. If you lose your shirt, that isn’t on me. However, if you win big, you can find us over on https://www.patreon.com/alanmosley or https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AMosley885 :)
Record: 5-1 Money-line / 4-2 ATS
Bank: +$164.68 on individual picks / +$49.57 on parlays
NFL – Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs -7 OVER Indianapolis Colts
I get it. The Indianapolis Colts have had a hard time getting wins down in Jacksonville in recent years despite the Jags being…the Jags. But it’s one thing to always get the best from a divisional rival defending their home turf. It’s quite another to get shut out, which is exactly what happened to the Colts last weekend. Matt Ryan, who I have been on the record as saying was a terrible pickup by Indy to tide them over at the QB position until (???) was a woeful 16/30 for 195 yards and 3 interceptions along with 5 sacks, coming in at a QBR on 6.2. No, not 62. Six point two. It is arguable that Ryan was washed a few years ago, but he definitely gives the Colts no hope now. To make matters worse, RB Jonathan Taylor was held to 54 yards on 9 carries, with 21 of those coming on one play. In short, anyone that thought Indianapolis was a serious playoff contender following the Matt Ryan signing was just incredibly misguided. Now that Colts team fresh off a shut out loss to the Jaguars (the JAGUARS!!!) and a season opening tie to Houston now plays host to the Kansas City Chiefs, easily a top-2 team in the NFL. The Chiefs own a cake-walk win over the Arizona Cardinals, which looks good or bad depending on which half of the Cards/Raiders game you watched last week, and a hard fought divisional win over the LA Chargers. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs’ winning ways are paced by QB Patrick Mahomes, who already has nearly 600 yards and 7 TDs on the season. Kansas City’s defense (22.5 points per game) has left a bit to be desired, but it won’t matter this week against a Colts offense averaging only 10 points per game. With a passing attack like theirs going up against a Colts defense who couldn’t find a way to stop Davis Mills or Trevor Lawrence when it mattered, Kansas City is going to run it up on Indianapolis. The Colts should be entering the race for the #1 draft pick to replace Old Man Ryan, while the Chiefs are still well within their championship window. Kansas City covers.
Baltimore Ravens -3 OVER New England Patriots
There have been numerous epic match-ups between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots over the years. This is not one of them. It’s a long season, and Baltimore’s 4th quarter meltdown against the Dolphins should not define them going forward. Much has been made about Ravens QB Lamar Jackson “betting on himself” this season, which is another way to say, “didn’t get a long term deal signed in the off season and chose to play instead of sit out or demand a trade.” Jackson did have one ugly fumble at the goal line that left points on the board last week, but otherwise his bet has been paying off with his 72.4% completion percentage, 318 yards and 3 TDs against the Fins. He also has 136 yards rushing on 15 carries and another TD for the season. For a Baltimore franchise that has won multiple Super Bowls with legendary defenders at the helm, this team is really an offensive team with a streaky defense. They’ll be hoping for 4 full quarters of effort against another young QB this week when they visit New England to take on Mac Jones and the Patriots. Jones started relatively hot last season before cooling down the stretch, which is not uncommon for rookies. However, the sophomore slump has already appeared for Jones, whose completion percentage is down along with only 2 TDs to go with 2 INTs for the year. The Patriots, much like the Colts above, just haven’t been able to score points (12 per game) and have relied on ugly, defensive football to stay in games. While they did manage to pull out the win over Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Pats will face a far bigger challenge containing Lamar Jackson. These two teams do have Miami as a common opponent. However, the Ravens really should have coasted to victory if they had done just a bit less…coasting. The Patriots were clearly a class below the Dolphins in their 20-7 loss. The game is in Foxboro, but the weather is still wonderful this time of year, and it’s hard to imagine New England keeps it as close as the questionable 3-point line Vegas has given this game. Baltimore covers.